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Nature of Intelligence – Episode Four – Babies vs Machines

So let’s recap where we’re at with regards to the Complexity podcast from the Santa Fe Institute. This season covers the Nature of Intelligence, going beyond what it means for humans to be intelligent and taking a look at the state of AI (artificial intelligence) from that same perspective. So far we’ve addressed:

And now it’s time to talk about Babies vs Machines.

So far in this season, we’ve looked at intelligence from a few different angles, and it’s clear that AI systems and humans learn in very different ways. And there’s an argument to be made that if we just train AI to learn the way humans do, they’ll get closer to human-like intelligence. ~ Abha Eli Phoboo

This is an intriguing issue for me – the fact that LLMs are trained on data, not experiences. Even though much of the data it’s trained on came out of human experiences, data does not equal doing. And this is especially true with babies. No matter how much information you provide to an LLM that’s related to being a baby, that information is based on observation. And the last time I checked, two-year-olds were not writing scientific papers.

Unlike humans, large language models don’t have this intrinsic drive to participate in social interactions. ~ Melanie Mitchell

Most likely you’ve been in a room with a group of kids. A living room, backyard, playground, or in a school classroom. Think about the level of social interaction that occurs. They’re playing with each other, as well as and telling and hearing stories. Maybe they’re laughing, or if a child had their toy taken away, crying.

This paradigm plays out over and over again in childhood, and without diving too deep into the complex topic of cognitive development, it’s safe to say that these interactions carry great meaning. But LLMs never had a childhood. So it begs the question, can LLM intelligence ever equate to human intelligence?

Transcript

Abha Eli Phoboo: The voices you’ll hear were recorded remotely across different countries, cities and work spaces.

Linda Smith: The data for training children has been curated by evolution. This is in stark contrast to all the large data models. They just scrape everything. Would you educate your kid by scraping off the web?

Abha: From the Santa Fe Institute, this is Complexity.

Melanie Mitchell: I’m Melanie Mitchell.

Abha: And I’m Abha Eli Phoboo.

Abha: So far in this season, we’ve looked at intelligence from a few different angles, and it’s clear that AI systems and humans learn in very different ways. And there’s an argument to be made that if we just train AI to learn the way humans do, they’ll get closer to human-like intelligence.

Melanie: But the interesting thing is, our own development is still a mystery that researchers are untangling. For an AI system like a large language model, the engineers that create them know, at least in principle, the structure of their learning algorithms and the data that’s being fed to them. With babies though, we’re still learning about how the raw ingredients come together in the first place.

Abha: Today, we’re going to look at the world through an infant’s eyes. We know that the information babies are absorbing is very different from an LLM’s early development. But how different is it? What are babies experiencing at different stages of their development? How do they learn from their experiences? And how much does the difference between babies and machines matter?

Abha: Part One: The world through a baby’s eyes

Abha: Developmental psychology, the study of how cognition unfolds from birth to adulthood, has been around since the late 19th century. For the first 100 years of its history, this field consisted of psychologists observing babies and children and coming up with theories. After all, babies can’t tell us directly what they’re experiencing.

Melanie: But what if scientists could view the world through a baby’s own eyes? This has only become possible in the last 20 years or so. Psychologists are now able to put cameras on babies’ heads and record everything that they see and hear. And the data collected from these cameras is beginning to change how scientists think about the experiences most important to babies’ early learning.

Linda: I’m Linda Smith, and I’m a professor at Indiana University. I’m a developmental psychologist, and what I am interested in and have been for a kind of long career, is how infants break into language.

And some people think that means that you just study language, but in fact, what babies can do with their bodies, how well they can control their bodies, determines how well they can control their attention and what the input is, what they do, how they handle objects, whether they emit vocalizations, all those things play a direct role in learning language. And so I take a kind of complex or multimodal system approach to trying to understand the cascades and how all these pieces come together.

Melanie: Linda Smith is the Chancellor’s Professor of Psychological and Brain Sciences at Indiana University. She’s one of the pioneers of head-mounted camera research with infants.

Linda: I began putting head cameras on babies because people have throughout my career, major theorists, have at various points made the point that all kinds of things were not learnable. Language wasn’t learnable.

Chomsky said that basically. All this is not learnable. The only way you could possibly know it was for it to be a form of pre-wired knowledge. It seemed to me even back in the 70s, that my thoughts were, we are way smarter than that.

And I should surely hope that if I was put on some mysterious world in some matrix space or whatever, where the physics work differently, that I could figure it out. But we had no idea what the data are.

Most people assume that at the scale of daily life, massive experience, the statistics are kind of the same for everybody. But by putting head cameras on babies, we have found out that they are absolutely, and I’m not alone in this, there’s a lot of people doing this, we have found out that it is absolutely not the same.

Melanie: Linda’s talking about the statistics of the visual world that humans experience. We perceive correlations — certain objects tend to appear together, for example chairs are next to tables, trees are next to shrubs, shoes are worn on feet.

Or at an even more basic, unconscious level, we perceive statistical correlations among edges of objects, colors, certain properties of light, and so on. We perceive correlations in space as well as in time.

Abha: Linda and others discovered that the visual statistics that the youngest babies are exposed to, what they’re learning from in their earliest months, are very different from what we adults tend to see.

Linda: There they are in the world, they’re in their little seats, you know, looking, or on somebody’s shoulder looking. And the images in front of their face, the input available to the eye changes extraordinarily slowly, and slow is good for extracting information.

In the first three months, babies make remarkable progress, both in the tuning of the foundational periods of vision, foundational aspects of vision, edges, contrast sensitivity, chromatic sensitivity. But it’s not like they wait till they get all the basic vision worked out before they can do anything else.

The first three months define the period of faces, they recognize parents’ faces, they become biased in faces. If they live in one ethnic group, they can recognize those faces better and discriminate them better than if they live in another. And all this happens by three months. And some measures suggest that the first three to four months, this is Daphne Mauer’s amazing work of babies with cataracts, that if you don’t have a cataract removed before four months of age for infantile cataracts, that human face perception is disrupted for life.

And that’s likely in the lower level neural circuits, although maybe it’s in the face ones as well. And babies who are three months old can discriminate dogs from cats. I mean, it’s not like they’re not learning anything. They are building a very impressive visual system.

Many of our other mammalian friends get born and immediately get up and run around. We don’t. We sit there, for three months, tot to believe it’s important, right?

Melanie: Linda and her collaborators analyzed the data from head-mounted cameras on infants. And they found that over their first several months of life, these infants are having visual experiences that are driven by their developing motor abilities and their interactions with parents and other caregivers.

And the process unfolds in a way that enables them to efficiently learn about the world. The order in which they experience different aspects of their visual environment actually facilitates learning.

Linda: It’s a principle of learning, not a principle of the human brain. It’s a principle of the structure of data. I think what Mother Nature is doing is, it’s taking the developing baby who’s got to learn everything in language and vision and holding objects and sounds and everything, okay, and social relations and controlling self-regulation.

It is taking them on a little walk through the solution space. The data for training children has been curated by evolution. This is in sort of a marked contrast to all the large data models, right? They just scrape everything. Would you educate your kid by scraping off the web? I mean, would you train your child on this? So anyway, I think the data is important.

Abha: Another developmental psychologist who’s focused on babies and the data they experience is Mike Frank.

Mike Frank: I’m Mike Frank. I’m a professor of psychology at Stanford, and I’m generally interested in how children learn. So how they go from being speechless, wordless babies to, just a few years later, kids that can navigate the world. And so the patterns of growth and change that support that is what fascinates me, and I tend to use larger data sets and new methodologies to investigate those questions.

When I was back in grad school, people started working with this new method, they started putting cameras on kids’ heads. And so Pavan Sinha did it with his newborn and gave us this amazing rich look at what it looked like to be a newborn perceiving the visual world.

And then pioneers like Linda Smith and Chen Yu and Karen Adolf and Dick Aslan and others started experimenting with the method and gathering these really exciting data sets that were maybe upending our view of what children’s input looked like. And that’s really critical because if you’re a learning scientist, if you’re trying to figure out how learning works, you need to know what the inputs are as well as what the processes of learning are.

So I got really excited about this. And when I started my lab at Stanford, I started learning a little bit of crafting and trying to build little devices. We’d order cameras off the internet and then try to staple them onto camping headlamps or glue them on a little aftermarket fisheye lens.

We tried all these different little crafty solutions to get something that kids would enjoy wearing. At that time we were in advance of computer vision technologies by probably about five or seven years, so we thought naively that we could process this flood of video that we were getting from kids. And put it through computer vision and have an answer as to what the kids were seeing and it turned out the vision algorithms failed completely on these data.

They couldn’t process it at all, in part because the cameras were bad. And so they would have just a piece of what the child was seeing, and in part because the vision algorithms were bad, and they were trained on Facebook photos, not on children’s real input. And so they couldn’t process these very different angles and very different orientations and occlusions, cutting off faces and so forth.

So, that was how I got into it, I was thinking I could use computer vision to measure children’s input. And then it turned out I had to wait maybe five or seven years until the algorithms got good enough that that was true.

Melanie: So what are the most interesting things people have learned from this kind of data?

Mike: Well, as somebody interested in communication and social cognition and little babies, I thought the discovery, which I think belongs to Linda Smith and to her collaborators, the discovery that really floored me was that we’d been talking about gaze following and looking at people’s faces for years, that human gaze and human faces were this incredibly rich source of information.

And then when we looked at the head mounted camera videos, babies actually didn’t see faces that often because they’re lying there on the floor. They’re crawling. They’re really living in this world of knees. And so it turned out that when people were excited to spend time with the baby, or to manipulate their attention, they would put their hands right in front of the baby’s face and put some object right in the baby’s face.

And that’s how they would be getting the child’s attention or directing the child’s attention or interacting with them. It’s not that the baby would be looking way up there in the air to where the parent was and figuring out what the parent was looking at.

So this idea of sharing attention through hands and through manipulating the baby’s position and what’s in front of the baby’s face, that was really exciting and surprising as a discovery. And I think we’ve seen that borne out in the videos that we take in kids homes.

Abha: And doing psychological research on babies doesn’t come without its challenges.

Mike: You know, if you want to deal with the baby, you have to recruit that family, make contact with them, get their consent for research. And then the baby has to be in a good mood to be involved in a study or the child has to be willing to participate. And so we work with families online and in person.

We also go to local children’s museums and local nursery schools. And so, often for each of the data points that you see, at least in a traditional empirical study, that’s hours of work by a skilled research assistant or a graduate student doing the recruitment, actually delivering the experience to the child.

Melanie: Over the last several years, Mike and his collaborators have created two enormous datasets of videos taken by head-mounted cameras on children from six months to five years old. These datasets are not only being used by psychologists to better understand human cognitive development, but also by AI researchers to try to train machines to learn about the world more like the way babies do.

We’ll talk more about this research in Part 2.

Melanie: Part 2: Should AI systems learn the same way babies do?

Melanie: As we discussed in our previous episode, while large language models are able to do a lot of really impressive things, their abilities are still pretty limited when compared to humans. Many people in the AI world believe that if we just keep training large language models on more and more data, they’ll get better and better, and soon they’ll match or surpass human intelligence.

Abha: But other AI researchers think there’s something fundamental missing in the way these systems work, and in how they are currently trained. But what’s the missing piece? Can new insights about human cognitive development create a path for AI systems to understand the world in a more robust way?

Linda: I think the big missed factor in understanding human intelligence is understanding the structure, the statistics of the input. And I think the fail point of current AI definitely lies, I think, in the data. And I’d like to make the data used for training, and I’d like to make a case that that is the biggest fail point.

Abha: Today’s neural networks are typically trained on language and images scraped from the web. Linda and other developmental psychologists have tried something different — they’ve trained AI neural networks on image frames from the videos collected from head-mounted cameras. The question is whether this kind of data will make a difference in the neural networks’ abilities.

Linda: If you train them, pre-train them with babies visual inputs, 400 million images, and you order them from birth to 12 months of age, what we call the developmental order, versus you order them backwards from oldest to youngest, or if you randomize them, that the developmental order leads in a trained network that is better to learn the name for actions in later training, to learn object names in later training.

Not everybody is interested in this. They bought into the view that if you get enough data, any data, everything ever known or said in the world, okay, that you will be smart. You’ll be intelligent. It just does not seem to me that that’s necessarily true. There’s a lot of stuff out there that’s not accurate, dead wrong, and odd. Just scraping massive amounts of current knowledge that exists of everything ever written or every picture ever taken, it’s just, it’s not ideal.

Melanie: Is it a matter of getting better data, or getting better sort of ordering of how you teach these systems, or is there something more fundamental missing?

Linda: I don’t think it’s more fundamental actually, okay. I think it’s better data. I think it’s multimodal data. I think it’s data that is deeply in the real world, not in human interpretations of that real world, but deeply in the real world, data coming through the sensory systems. It’s the raw data.

It is not data that has gone through your biased, cultish views on who should or should not get funded in the mortgage, not biased by the worst elements on the web’s view of what a woman should look like, not biased in all these ways. It’s not been filtered through that information. It is raw, okay? It is raw.

Abha: Linda believes that the structure of the data, including its order over time, is the most important factor for learning in both babies and in AI systems. I asked her about the point Alison Gopnik made in our first episode: how important is it that the learning agent, whether it’s a child or a machine, is actively interacting in the real world, rather than passively learning from data it’s given?

Linda acknowledges that this kind of doing, rather than just observing — being able to, through one’s movements or attention, to actually generate the data that one’s learning from — is also key.

Linda: I think you get a lot by observing, but the doing is clearly important. So this is the multimodal enactive kind of view, which I think, doesn’t just get you data from the world at the raw level, although I think that would be a big boon, okay? From the real world, not photographs, okay? And in time. What I do in the next moment, what I say to you, depends on my state of knowledge.

Which means that the data that comes in at the next moment is related to what I need to learn or where I am in my learning. Because it is what I know right now is making me do stuff. That means a learning system and the data for learning, because the learning system generates it, are intertwined. It’s like the very same brain that’s doing the learning is the brain that’s generating the data.

Abha: Perhaps if AI researchers focused more on the structure of their training data rather than on sheer quantity, and if they enabled their machines to interact directly with the world rather than passively learning from data that’s been filtered through human interpretation, AI would end up having a better understanding of the world. Mike notes that, for example, the amount of language current LLMs are trained on is orders of magnitude larger than what kids are exposed to.

Mike: So modern AI systems are trained on huge data sets, and that’s part of their success. So you get the first glimmerings of this amazing flexible intelligence that we start to see when we see GPT-3 with 500 billion words of training data. It’s a trade secret of the companies how much training data they use, but the most recent systems are at least in the 10 trillion plus range of data.

A five-year-old has maybe heard 60 million words. That’d be a reasonable estimate. That’s kind of a high estimate for what a five-year-old has heard. So that’s, you know, six orders of magnitude different in some ways, five to six orders of magnitude different. So the biggest thing that I think about a lot is how huge that difference is between what the child hears and what the language model needs to be trained on.

Kids are amazing learners. And I think by drawing attention to the relative differences in the amount of data that kids and LLMs get, that really highlights just how sophisticated their learning is.

Melanie: But of course they’re getting other sensory modalities like vision and touching things and being able to manipulate objects. Is that gonna make a big difference with the amount of training they’re gonna need?

Mike: This is right where the scientific question is for me, which is what part of the child as a system, as a learning system or in their broader data ecosystem makes the difference. And you could think, well, maybe it’s the fact that they’ve got this rich visual input alongside the language. Maybe that’s the really important thing.

And then you’d have to grapple with the fact that adding, just adding pictures to language models doesn’t make them particularly that much smarter. At least in the most recent commercial systems, adding pictures makes them cool and they can do things with pictures now, but they still make the same mistakes about reasoning about the physical world that they did before.

Abha: Mike also points out that even if you train LLMs on the data generated by head-mounted cameras on babies, that doesn’t necessarily solve the physical reasoning problems.

Melanie: In fact, sometimes you get the opposite effect, where instead of becoming smarter, this data makes these models perform less well. As Linda pointed out earlier, there’s something special about having generated the data oneself, with one’s own body and with respect to what one actually wants to — or needs to — learn.

Mike: There are also some other studies that I think are a bit more of a cautionary tale, which is that if you train models on a lot of human data, they still don’t get that good. Actually, the data that babies have appears to be more, not less challenging, for language models and for computer vision models. These are pretty new results from my lab, but we find that performance doesn’t scale that well when you train on baby data.

You go to videos from a child’s home, you train models on that. And the video is all of the kid playing with the same truck, or there’s only one dog in the house. And then you try to get that model to recognize all the dogs in the world. And it’s like, no, it’s not the dog. So that’s a very different thing, right? So the data that kids get is both deeper and richer in some ways and also much less diverse in other ways.

And yet their visual system is still remarkably good at recognizing a dog, even when they’ve only seen one or two. So that kind of really quick learning and rapid generalization to the appropriate class, that’s something that we’re still struggling with in computer vision. And I think the same thing is true in language learning.

So doing these kinds of simulations with real data from kids, I think, could be very revealing of the strengths and weaknesses of our models.

Abha: What does Mike think is missing from our current models? Why do they need so many more examples of a dog before they can do the simple generalizations that kids are doing?

Mike: Maybe though it’s having a body, maybe it’s being able to move through space and intervene on the world, to change things in the world. Maybe that’s what makes the difference. Or maybe it’s being a social creature interacting with other people who are structuring the world for you and teaching you about the world. That could be important.

Or maybe it’s the system itself. Maybe it’s the baby and the baby has built in some concepts of objects and events and the agents, the people around them as social actors. And it’s really those factors that make the difference.

Abha: In our first episode, we heard a clip of Alison Gopnik’s one-year old grandson experimenting with a xylophone — it’s a really interactive kind of learning, where the child is controlling and creating the data, and then they’re able to generalize to other instruments and experiences. And when it comes to the stuff that babies care about most, they might only need to experience something once for it to stay with them.

Melanie: But also remember that Alison’s grandson was playing music with his grandfather — even though he couldn’t talk, he had a strong desire to play with, to communicate with his grandfather. Unlike humans, large language models don’t have this intrinsic drive to participate in social interactions.

Mike: A six month old can communicate. They can communicate very well about their basic needs. They can transfer information to other people. There’s even some experimental evidence that they can understand a little bit about the intentions of the other people and understand some rudiments of what it means to have a signal to get somebody’s attention or to get them to do something.

So they actually can be quite good at communication. So communication and language being two different things. Communication enables language and is at the heart of language, but you don’t have to know a language in order to be able to communicate.

Melanie: In contrast to babies, LLM’s aren’t driven to communicate. But they can exhibit what Mike calls “communicative behavior”, or what, in the previous episode, Murray Shanahan would have called “role-playing” communication.

Mike: LLMs do not start with communicative ability. LLMs are in the most basic, you know, standard architectures, prediction engines. They are trying to optimize their prediction of the next word. And then of course we layer on lots of other fine-tuning and reinforcement learning with human feedback, these techniques for changing their behavior to match other goals, but they really start basically as predictors.

And it is one of the most astonishing parts about the LLM revolution that you get some communicative behaviors out of very large versions of these models. So that’s really remarkable and I think it’s true. I think you can see pretty good evidence that they are engaging in things that we would call communicative.

Does that mean they fundamentally understand human beings? I don’t know and I think that’s pretty tough to demonstrate. But they engage in the kinds of reasoning about others’ goals and intentions that we look for in children. But they only do that when they’ve got 500 billion words or a trillion words of input.

So they don’t start with communication and then move to language the way we think babies do. They start with predicting whatever it is that they are given as input, which in the case of LLMs is language. And then astonishingly, they appear to extract some higher level generalizations that help them manifest communicative behaviors.

Abha: In spite of the many differences between LLMs and babies, Mike’s still very excited about what LLMs can contribute to our understanding of human cognition.

Mike: I think it’s an amazing time to be a scientist interested in the mind and in language. For 50 years, we’ve been thinking that the really hard part of learning human language is making grammatical sentences. And from that perspective, I think it is intellectually dishonest not to think that we’ve learned something big recently, which is that when you train models, relatively unstructured models, on lots of data about language, they can recover the ability to produce grammatical language. And that’s just amazing.

There were many formal arguments and theoretical arguments that that was impossible, and those arguments were fundamentally wrong, I think. And we have to come to grips with that as a field because it’s really a big change.

On the other hand, the weaknesses of the LLMs also are really revealing, right? That there are aspects of meaning, often those aspects that are grounded in the physical world that are trickier to reason about and take longer and need much more input than just getting a grammatical sentence. And that’s fascinating too.

The classic debate in developmental cognitive science has been about nativism versus empiricism, what must be innate to the child for the child to learn. I think my views are changing rapidly on what needs to be built in. And the next step is going to be trying to use those techniques to figure out what actually is built into the kids and to the human learners.

I’m really excited about the fact that these models have not just become interesting artifacts from an engineering or commercial perspective, but that they are also becoming real scientific tools, real scientific models that can be used and explored as part of this broad, open, accessible ecosystem for people to work on the human mind.

So just fascinating to see this new generation of models get linked to the brain, get it linked to human behavior and becoming part of the scientific discussion.

Abha: Mike’s not only interested in how LLMs can provide insight into human psychology. He’s also written some influential articles on how experimental practice in developmental psychology can help improve our understanding of LLMs.

Melanie: You’ve written some articles about how methods from developmental psychology research might be useful in evaluating the capabilities of LLMs. So what do you see as the problems with the way these systems are currently being evaluated? And how can research psychology contribute to this?

Mike: Well, way back in 2023, which is about 15 years ago in AI time, when GPT-4 came out, there was this whole set of really excited responses to it, which is great. It was very exciting technology. It still is. And some of them looked a lot like the following. “I played GPT-4, the transcript of the Moana movie from Disney, and it cried at the end and said it was sad. Oh my god, GPT-4 has human emotions.” Right.

And this kind of response to me as a psychologist struck me as a kind of classic research methods error, which is you’re not doing an experiment. you’re just observing this anecdote about a system and then jumping to the conclusion that you can infer what’s inside the system’s mind. And, you know, if psychology has developed anything, it’s a body of knowledge about the methods and the rules of that game of inferring what’s inside somebody else’s mind.

It’s by no means a perfect field, but some of these things are pretty, you know, well described and especially in developmental psych. So, classic experiments have a control group and an experimental group, and you compare between those two groups in order to tell if some particular active ingredient makes the difference. And so minimally, you would want to have evaluations with two different, sort of types of material, and comparison between them in order to make that kind of inference.

And so that’s the sort of thing that I have gone around saying and have written about a bit is that you just need to take some basic tools from experimental methods, doing controlled experiments, using kind of tightly controlled simple stimuli so that you know why the LLM or why the child gives you a particular response and so forth, so that you don’t get these experimental findings that turn out later to be artifacts because you didn’t take care of a particular confound in your stimulus materials.

Melanie: What kind of response have you gotten from the AI community?

Mike: I think there’s actually been some openness to this kind of work. There has been a lot of push-back on those initial evaluations of language models. Just to give one kind of concrete example here, I was making fun of people with this human emotions bit, but there were actually a lot of folks that made claims about different ChatGPT versions having what’s called theory of mind, that is being able to reason about the beliefs and desires of other people. So the initial evaluations took essentially stories from the developmental psychology literature that are supposed to diagnose theory of mind. These are things like the Sally Anne task.

Abha: You might remember the Sally-Anne Test from our last episode. Sally puts an object — let’s say a ball, or a book, or some other thing, in one place and then leaves. And then while Sally’s away, Anne moves that object to another hiding spot. And then the test asks: Where will Sally look for her object when she returns?

Melanie: And even though you and I know where Anne put the book or the ball, we also know that Sally does not know that, so when she returns she’ll look in the wrong place for it. Theory of mind is understanding that Sally has a false belief about the situation because she has her own separate experience.

Abha: And if you give ChatGPT a description of the Sally-Anne test, it can solve it. But we don’t know if it can do it because it’s actually reasoning, or just because it’s absorbed so many examples during its training period. And so researchers started making small changes that initially tripped up the LLMs, like changing the names of Sally and Anne. But LLMs have caught on to those too.

Mike: LLMs are pretty good at those kinds of superficial alterations. So maybe you need to make new materials. Maybe you need to actually make new puzzles about people’s beliefs that don’t involve changing the location of an item. Right. So people got a lot better at this. And I wouldn’t say that the state of the art is perfect now. But the approach that you see in papers that have come out even just a year later is much more sophisticated.

They have a lot of different puzzles about reasoning about other people. They’re looking at whether the LLM correctly diagnoses why a particular social faux pas was embarrassing or whether a particular way of saying something was awkward. There’s a lot more reasoning that is necessary in these new benchmarks.

So I think this is actually a case where the discussion, which I was just a small part of, really led to an improvement in the research methods. We still have further to go, but it’s only been a year. So I’m quite optimistic that all of this discussion of methods has actually improved our understanding of how to study the models and also actually improved our understanding of the models themselves.

Abha: So, Melanie, from everything Mike just said, it sounds like researchers who study LLMs are still figuring out the best way to understand how they work. And it’s not unlike the long process of trying to understand babies, too. Right?

Melanie: Right. You know, when I first heard about psychologists putting cameras on babies’ heads to record, I thought it was hilarious. But it sounds like the data collected from these cameras is actually revolutionizing developmental psychology! We heard from Linda that the data shows that the structure of the baby’s visual experiences is quite different from what people had previously thought.

Abha: Right. I mean, it’s amazing that, you know, they don’t actually see our faces so much. As Mike mentioned, they’re in a world of knees, right? And Linda seems to think that the structuring of the data by Mother Nature, as she put it, is what allows babies to learn so much in their first few years of life.

Melanie: Right. Linda talked about the so-called developmental order, which is the temporal order in which babies get different kinds of visual or other experiences as they mature. And what they see and hear is driven by what they can do with their own bodies and their social relationships.

And importantly, it’s also driven by what they want to learn, what they’re curious about. It’s completely different from the way large language models learn, which is by humans feeding them huge amounts of text and photos scraped from the web.

Abha: And this developmental order, I mean, it’s also conducive to babies to learn the right things at the right time. And remember Mike pointed out that the way babies and children learn allows them to do more with less.

They’re able to generalize much more easily than LLMs can. But there’s still a lot of mystery about all of this. People are still trying to make sense of the development of cognition in humans, right?

Melanie: And interestingly, Mike thinks that large language models are actually going to help psychologists in this, even though they’re so different from us. So for example, LLMs can be used as a proof of principle of what can actually be learned versus what has to be built in and of what kinds of behaviors can emerge, like the communication behavior he talked about.

I’m also personally very excited about the other direction, using principles from child development in improving AI systems and also using principles from experimental methodology in figuring out what LLMs are and aren’t capable of.

Abha: Yeah. Often it seems like trying to compare the intelligence of humans and computers is like trying to compare apples to oranges. They seem so different. And trying to use tests that are typically used in humans, like the theory of mind test that Mike referred to and Tomer talked about in our last episode, they don’t seem to always give us the insights we’re looking for.

So what kinds of approaches should be used to evaluate cognitive abilities and LLMs? I mean, is there something to be learned from the methods used to study intelligence in non-human animals?

Melanie: Well, in our next episode, we’ll look more closely at how to assess intelligence, and if we’re even asking the right questions.

Ellie Pavlick: I think, what it means when a person passes the MCAT, or scores well on the SAT, is not the same thing as what it might mean when a neural network does that. We don’t really know what it means when a neural network does that. And that’s part of the problem.

Melanie: That’s next time, on Complexity. Complexity is the official podcast of the Santa Fe Institute. This episode was produced by Katherine Moncure, and our theme song is by Mitch Mignano. Additional music from Blue Dot Sessions. I’m Melanie, thanks for listening

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Hans and Ola Rosling: How not to be ignorant about the world @ TEDSalon Berlin

I had the pleasure of attending a special TED event in 2014. TEDSalon Berlin was just a one day affair, yet it featured a number of compelling talks that served as examples of impactful stories on global issues. This post is an analysis of a talk given by Hans RoslingOla Rosling on how knowledge, or a lack of knowledge, shapes our view of the world. For a better future, we need to understand today.

Watch Hans and Ola Rosling’s TED Talk. The numbers that are being presented represent serious topics, yet the focus in not on digging into the trends, but to highlight how our perceptions about these trends are so often wrong. It’s a fun talk to watch, which doesn’t often happen with statistics, yet inspires us to use caution before jumping to conclusions.

Transcript

(my notes in red)

Hans Rosling: I’m going to ask you three multiple choice questions. Use this device. Use this device to answer. The first question is, how did the number of deaths per year from natural disaster, how did that change during the last century? Did it more than double, did it remain about the same in the world as a whole, or did it decrease to less than half? Please answer A, B or C. I see lots of answers. This is much faster than I do it at universities. They are so slow. They keep thinking, thinking, thinking. Oh, very, very good.

Quite different from the reserved style of most TED speakers, Hans brings the energy level up immediately with the tone, volume, and passion in his voice. The digital interaction with the audience also differentiates this talk from a simple narration and makes the audience a character within the narration.

And we go to the next question. So how long did women 30 years old in the world go to school: seven years, five years or three years? A, B or C? Please answer.

And we go to the next question. In the last 20 years, how did the percentage of people in the world who live in extreme poverty change? Extreme poverty — not having enough food for the day. Did it almost double, did it remain more or less the same, or did it halve? A, B or C?

Now, answers. You see, deaths from natural disasters in the world, you can see it from this graph here, from 1900 to 2000. In 1900, there was about half a million people who died every year from natural disasters: floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, whatever, droughts. And then, how did that change?

Gapminder asked the public in Sweden. This is how they answered. The Swedish public answered like this: Fifty percent thought it had doubled, 38 percent said it’s more or less the same, 12 said it had halved.

This is the best data from the disaster researchers, and it goes up and down, and it goes to the Second World War, and after that it starts to fall and it keeps falling and it’s down to much less than half. The world has been much, much more capable as the decades go by to protect people from this, you know. So only 12 percent of the Swedes know this.

Hans uses a chart to map the answers for the first question based on a research study, then displays the actual answer as a line which proceeds across the chart along the time axis. It’s a powerful way to overlay a statistical answer in conjunction with a prediction of the answer.

So I went to the zoo and I asked the chimps. The chimps don’t watch the evening news, so the chimps, they choose by random, so the Swedes answer worse than random. Now how did you do? That’s you. You were beaten by the chimps. But it was close. You were three times better than the Swedes, but that’s not enough. You shouldn’t compare yourself to Swedes. You must have higher ambitions in the world.

Adding humor to a statistical story block isn’t the easiest thing to do, but Hans is a natural comedian alongside his talent at following the science. Can you insert a lighthearted comedic moment while sharing data? Some topics don’t lend themselves to humor, so be mindful.

Let’s look at the next answer here: women in school. Here, you can see men went eight years. How long did women go to school? Well, we asked the Swedes like this, and that gives you a hint, doesn’t it? The right answer is probably the one the fewest Swedes picked, isn’t it? Let’s see, let’s see. Here we come. Yes, yes, yes, women have almost caught up. This is the U.S. public. And this is you. Here you come. Ooh. Well, congratulations, you’re twice as good as the Swedes, but you don’t need me —

So how come? I think it’s like this, that everyone is aware that there are countries and there are areas where girls have great difficulties. They are stopped when they go to school, and it’s disgusting. But in the majority of the world, where most people in the world live, most countries, girls today go to school as long as boys, more or less. That doesn’t mean that gender equity is achieved, not at all. They still are confined to terrible, terrible limitations, but schooling is there in the world today. Now, we miss the majority. When you answer, you answer according to the worst places, and there you are right, but you miss the majority.

Beyond the numbers themselves, and how different groups faired when predicting, Hans offers an insight as to why so many people got the answer wrong. We tend to be more aware of where problems exist, not successes. He doesn’t mention it, but in my experience that’s because the news focuses on problems over successes. I’d like to see that topic analyzed in parallel, but that would make for a much longer talk.

What about poverty? Well, it’s very clear that poverty here was almost halved, and in U.S., when we asked the public, only five percent got it right. And you? Ah, you almost made it to the chimps. That little, just a few of you! There must be preconceived ideas, you know. And many in the rich countries, they think that oh, we can never end extreme poverty. Of course they think so, because they don’t even know what has happened. The first thing to think about the future is to know about the present.

This last line is a fundamental perspective that Hans is bringing into this talk – that we need to know about the present and understand what is really going on now in order to consider what the future might look like.

These questions were a few of the first ones in the pilot phase of the Ignorance Project in Gapminder Foundation that we run, and it was started, this project, last year by my boss, and also my son, Ola Rosling. He’s cofounder and director, and he wanted, Ola told me we have to be more systematic when we fight devastating ignorance. So already the pilots reveal this, that so many in the public score worse than random, so we have to think about preconceived ideas, and one of the main preconceived ideas is about world income distribution.

Look here. This is how it was in 1975. It’s the number of people on each income, from one dollar a day. See, there was one hump here, around one dollar a day, and then there was one hump here somewhere between 10 and 100 dollars. The world was two groups. It was a camel world, like a camel with two humps, the poor ones and the rich ones, and there were fewer in between.

Continuing with his fun approach to numbers, Hans uses a prop to not only point at the graph behind him, but to elicit a laugh from the audience. Props are an old trick, but you don’t see them so often anymore, so it’s a refreshing change.

But look how this has changed: As I go forward, what has changed, the world population has grown, and the humps start to merge. The lower humps merged with the upper hump, and the camel dies and we have a dromedary world with one hump only. The percent in poverty has decreased. Still it’s appalling that so many remain in extreme poverty. We still have this group, almost a billion, over there, but that can be ended now.

The challenge we have now is to get away from that, understand where the majority is, and that is very clearly shown in this question. We asked, what is the percentage of the world’s one-year-old children who have got those basic vaccines against measles and other things that we have had for many years: 20, 50 or 80 percent?

Now, this is what the U.S. public and the Swedish answered. Look at the Swedish result: you know what the right answer is. Who the heck is a professor of global health in that country? Well, it’s me. It’s me. It’s very difficult, this. It’s very difficult.

However, Ola’s approach to really measure what we know made headlines, and CNN published these results on their web and they had the questions there, millions answered, and I think there were about 2,000 comments, and this was one of the comments. “I bet no member of the media passed the test,” he said.

So Ola told me, “Take these devices. You are invited to media conferences. Give it to them and measure what the media know.” And ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, the informal results from a conference with U.S. media. And then, lately, from the European Union media. You see, the problem is not that people don’t read and listen to the media. The problem is that the media doesn’t know themselves. What shall we do about this, Ola? Do we have any ideas?

Ola Rosling: Yes, I have an idea, but first, I’m so sorry that you were beaten by the chimps. Fortunately, I will be able to comfort you by showing why it was not your fault, actually. Then, I will equip you with some tricks for beating the chimps in the future. That’s basically what I will do.

But first, let’s look at why are we so ignorant, and it all starts in this place. It’s Hudiksvall. It’s a city in northern Sweden. It’s a neighborhood where I grew up, and it’s a neighborhood with a large problem. Actually, it has exactly the same problem which existed in all the neighborhoods where you grew up as well. It was not representative. Okay? It gave me a very biased view of how life is on this planet. So this is the first piece of the ignorance puzzle. We have a personal bias.

The talk pivots in two respects at this point. Hans give the floor to his son, Ola, and it shifts from demonstrating that the public and media has a lack of awareness when it comes to important statistics, to explaining why that is and what can be done about it.

It’s pretty much at the half way mark, which is common in a problem / solution style talk. It’s important that your audience have a solid understanding of your topic before you present your idea for creating better outcomes in the future.

We have all different experiences from communities and people we meet, and on top of this, we start school, and we add the next problem. Well, I like schools, but teachers tend to teach outdated worldviews, because they learned something when they went to school, and now they describe this world to the students without any bad intentions, and those books, of course, that are printed are outdated in a world that changes. And there is really no practice to keep the teaching material up to date. So that’s what we are focusing on. So we have these outdated facts added on top of our personal bias.

What happens next is news, okay? An excellent journalist knows how to pick the story that will make headlines, and people will read it because it’s sensational. Unusual events are more interesting, no? And they are exaggerated, and especially things we’re afraid of. A shark attack on a Swedish person will get headlines for weeks in Sweden. So these three skewed sources of information were really hard to get away from.

Having presented the reasons for our general lack of knowledge, Ola uses a slide to help focus the audience’s mind on those three topics – Personal bias, Outdated facts, and News bias. The subject is far more complex than this, but for a talk under 20 minutes, it’s important to direct your narrative to the most important ideas. See if you can do that in three or less.

They kind of bombard us and equip our mind with a lot of strange ideas, and on top of it we put the very thing that makes us humans, our human intuition. It was good in evolution. It helped us generalize and jump to conclusions very, very fast. It helped us exaggerate what we were afraid of, and we seek causality where there is none, and we then get an illusion of confidence where we believe that we are the best car drivers, above the average. Everybody answered that question, “Yeah, I drive cars better.”

Okay, this was good evolutionarily, but now when it comes to the worldview, it is the exact reason why it’s upside down. The trends that are increasing are instead falling, and the other way around, and in this case, the chimps use our intuition against us, and it becomes our weakness instead of our strength. It was supposed to be our strength, wasn’t it?

So how do we solve such problems? First, we need to measure it, and then we need to cure it. So by measuring it we can understand what is the pattern of ignorance. We started the pilot last year, and now we’re pretty sure that we will encounter a lot of ignorance across the whole world, and the idea is really to scale it up to all domains or dimensions of global development, such as climate, endangered species, human rights, gender equality, energy, finance.

All different sectors have facts, and there are organizations trying to spread awareness about these facts. So I’ve started actually contacting some of them, like WWF and Amnesty International and UNICEF, and asking them, what are your favorite facts which you think the public doesn’t know?

Okay, I gather those facts. Imagine a long list with, say, 250 facts. And then we poll the public and see where they score worst. So we get a shorter list with the terrible results, like some few examples from Hans, and we have no problem finding these kinds of terrible results. Okay, this little shortlist, what are we going to do with it?

Well, we turn it into a knowledge certificate, a global knowledge certificate, which you can use, if you’re a large organization, a school, a university, or maybe a news agency, to certify yourself as globally knowledgeable. Basically meaning, we don’t hire people who score like chimpanzees. Of course you shouldn’t. So maybe 10 years from now, if this project succeeds, you will be sitting in an interview having to fill out this crazy global knowledge.

Part one of the solution is to create a knowledge certificate…

So now we come to the practical tricks. How are you going to succeed? There is, of course, one way, which is to sit down late nights and learn all the facts by heart by reading all these reports. That will never happen, actually. Not even Hans thinks that’s going to happen. People don’t have that time. People like shortcuts, and here are the shortcuts. We need to turn our intuition into strength again. We need to be able to generalize. So now I’m going to show you some tricks where the misconceptions are turned around into rules of thumb.

Part two of the solution is how to achieve that knowledge…

Let’s start with the first misconception. This is very widespread. Everything is getting worse. You heard it. You thought it yourself. The other way to think is, most things improve. So you’re sitting with a question in front of you and you’re unsure. You should guess “improve.” Okay? Don’t go for the worse. That will help you score better on our tests. That was the first one.

There are rich and poor and the gap is increasing. It’s a terrible inequality. Yeah, it’s an unequal world, but when you look at the data, it’s one hump. Okay? If you feel unsure, go for “the most people are in the middle.” That’s going to help you get the answer right.

Now, the next preconceived idea is first countries and people need to be very, very rich to get the social development like girls in school and be ready for natural disasters. No, no, no. That’s wrong. Look: that huge hump in the middle already have girls in school. So if you are unsure, go for the “the majority already have this,” like electricity and girls in school, these kinds of things. They’re only rules of thumb, so of course they don’t apply to everything, but this is how you can generalize.

Let’s look at the last one. If something, yes, this is a good one, sharks are dangerous. No — well, yes, but they are not so important in the global statistics, that is what I’m saying. I actually, I’m very afraid of sharks. So as soon as I see a question about things I’m afraid of, which might be earthquakes, other religions, maybe I’m afraid of terrorists or sharks, anything that makes me feel, assume you’re going to exaggerate the problem. That’s a rule of thumb. Of course there are dangerous things that are also great. Sharks kill very, very few. That’s how you should think.

With these four rules of thumb, you could probably answer better than the chimps, because the chimps cannot do this. They cannot generalize these kinds of rules. And hopefully we can turn your world around and we’re going to beat the chimps. Okay? That’s a systematic approach.

Ola provides four methods of improving your odds when it comes to guessing trend lines, but are you convinced they will work? I’m not speculating either way. I’m simply asking the question because if you’re creating a problem / solution, idea-driven narrative, what will matter most is whether the audience buys into your idea.

Now the question, is this important? Yeah, it’s important to understand poverty, extreme poverty and how to fight it, and how to bring girls in school. When we realize that actually it’s succeeding, we can understand it. But is it important for everyone else who cares about the rich end of this scale? I would say yes, extremely important, for the same reason. If you have a fact-based worldview of today, you might have a chance to understand what’s coming next in the future.

We’re going back to these two humps in 1975. That’s when I was born, and I selected the West. That’s the current EU countries and North America. Let’s now see how the rest and the West compares in terms of how rich you are. These are the people who can afford to fly abroad with an airplane for a vacation. In 1975, only 30 percent of them lived outside EU and North America. But this has changed, okay?

So first, let’s look at the change up till today, 2014. Today it’s 50/50. The Western domination is over, as of today. That’s nice. So what’s going to happen next? Do you see the big hump? Did you see how it moved? I did a little experiment. I went to the IMF, International Monetary Fund, website. They have a forecast for the next five years of GDP per capita. So I can use that to go five years into the future, assuming the income inequality of each country is the same.

I did that, but I went even further. I used those five years for the next 20 years with the same speed, just as an experiment what might actually happen. Let’s move into the future. In 2020, it’s 57 percent in the rest. In 2025, 63 percent. 2030, 68.

And in 2035, the West is outnumbered in the rich consumer market. These are just projections of GDP per capita into the future. Seventy-three percent of the rich consumers are going to live outside North America and Europe. So yes, I think it’s a good idea for a company to use this certificate to make sure to make fact-based decisions in the future.

It gets a bit heavy with the rapid fire numbers towards the end, and while I come away with the impression that, once again, my assumptions were wrong, I’m not sure that I come away with the feeling that the certificate is a good idea. That’s largely due to the fact that the certificate itself was not fully explained.

One of the challenges that you’ll deal with in presenting an idea with impact is getting the audience to understand both the problem and solution in a short period of time. In this case, my view is that accomplishing that task would need twice the amount of time.

This is where rehearsing in front of other people becomes extremely valuable. Without telling your audience what your talk is about, just present it, then ask them what they thought the talk was about and ask for their opinion as to whether your talk shifted their perception. If people are unclear at the end, another editing cycle is called for.

18:39
Thank you very much.

[Note: all comments inserted into this transcript are my opinions, not those of the speaker, the TED organization, nor anyone else on the planet. In my view, each story is unique, as is every interpretation of that story. The sole purpose of these analytical posts is to inspire a storyteller to become a storylistener, and in doing so, make their stories more impactful.]

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James Green: 3 moons and a planet that could have alien life @ TED Talks Live

TED Talks Live were held at The Town Hall Theater in NYC, in November of 2015. I had the pleasure of attending all six nights to hear speakers present impactful Ideas Worth Spreading. This post is an analysis of a talk by James Green about a planet and three moons within our solar system that may be home to lifeforms of some sort.

Watch James’ TED Talk. Most science talks are based on research performed in a laboratory. Hypotheses are codified, tests performed, and the results published. But once we leave the earth, the concept is a bit different. While any scientific discovery involves speculation, this factor becomes more prevalent off planet.

If your story involves science, and you’re thinking that science can’t be fun or it won’t seem exciting, this is a talk that will convince you otherwise. It’s a brilliant example of how technical information can be brought to life.

Transcript

(my notes in red)

Is there life beyond Earth in our solar system?

Asking a rhetorical question can serve as a powerful opening. As a reminder, rhetorical questions are asked in order to make a point and/or stimulate the thought process of a listener. It’s not meant to solicit an answer. In this case, James asks a question that’s been asked for thousands of years, and it’s one that most of us would love to have an answer to.

This question provides a physical frame of reference – not on earth, but still within our own solar system. Rhetorical questions can take us back in time, or into the future. Phrases such as ‘Imagine you are…’, or ‘What if…’ signals the audience that you want them to change their perspective away from the here and now. In doing so, it sparks their imagination.

Note: In general, I’m not a fan of speakers asking literal questions as a way to engage their audience. It makes sense in very specific situations but the majority of the time it’s a feeble attempt to connect with the audience, and indicates a weakness in the speaker’s story.

Wow, what a powerful question. You know, as a scientist — planetary scientist — we really didn’t take that very seriously until recently. Carl Sagan always said, “It takes extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims.” And the claims of having life beyond Earth need to be definitive, they need to be loud and they need to be everywhere for us to be able to believe it.

James takes a moment to frame how he will answer the question in his talk – from a scientific point of view – one that is based on evidence.

So how do we make this journey? What we decided to do is first look for those ingredients for life. The ingredients of life are: liquid water — we have to have a solvent, can’t be ice, has to be liquid. We also have to have energy. We also have to have organic material — things that make us up, but also things that we need to consume. So we have to have these elements in environments for long periods of time for us to be able to be confident that life, in that moment when it starts, can spark and then grow and evolve.

James provides another aspect of the framing, so that there is clarity regarding the process. When your story is intended for a public audience, don’t assume they will know each of the parameters that you’re working within. In most situations you will need to be explicit. Otherwise, confusion will crop up later in your narrative.

Well, I have to tell you that early in my career, when we looked at those three elements, I didn’t believe that they were beyond Earth in any length of time and for any real quantity. Why? We look at the inner planets. Venus is way too hot — it’s got no water. Mars — dry and arid. It’s got no water. And beyond Mars, the water in the solar system is all frozen.

In this brief historical story block, James looks back to describe what scientists previously thought about the question at hand. This is a common technique, used to contrast how things were in the past versus how things are today.

But recent observations have changed all that. It’s now turning our attention to the right places for us to take a deeper look and really start to answer our life question. So when we look out into the solar system, where are the possibilities? We’re concentrating our attention on four locations. The planet Mars and then three moons of the outer planets: Titan, Europa and small Enceladus.

The use of this visual image is impactful as the planet and moons he’s referring to become more that just his words. We can see the relative sizes and differences in color. We are not given any details, yet our imaginations continue to engage.

So what about Mars? Let’s go through the evidence. Well, Mars we thought was initially moon-like: full of craters, arid and a dead world. And so about 15 years ago, we started a series of missions to go to Mars and see if water existed on Mars in its past that changed its geology. We ought to be able to notice that. And indeed we started to be surprised right away. Our higher resolution images show deltas and river valleys and gulleys that were there in the past.

And in fact, Curiosity — which has been roving on the surface now for about three years — has really shown us that it’s sitting in an ancient river bed, where water flowed rapidly. And not for a little while, perhaps hundreds of millions of years. And if everything was there, including organics, perhaps life had started. Curiosity has also drilled in that red soil and brought up other material. And we were really excited when we saw that. Because it wasn’t red Mars, it was gray material, it’s gray Mars. We brought it into the rover, we tasted it, and guess what? We tasted organics — carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur — they were all there.

You can hear the excitement in his voice, the sense of surprise at what the rover had found. As you listen to your rehearsal recordings, always pay attention to whether the emotion on the page is reflected in your voice. Happy, sad, angry and perplexed have unique tones.

So Mars in its past, with a lot of water, perhaps plenty of time, could have had life, could have had that spark, could have grown. And is that life still there? We don’t know that. But a few years ago we started to look at a number of craters. During the summer, dark lines would appear down the sides of these craters. The more we looked, the more craters we saw, the more of these features. We now know more than a dozen of them.

A few months ago the fairy tale came true. We announced to the world that we know what these streaks are. It’s liquid water. These craters are weeping during the summer. Liquid water is flowing down these craters. So what are we going to do now — now that we see the water? Well, it tells us that Mars has all the ingredients necessary for life. In its past it had perhaps two-thirds of its northern hemisphere — there was an ocean. It has weeping water right now. Liquid water on its surface. It has organics. It has all the right conditions. So what are we going to do next? We’re going to launch a series of missions to begin that search for life on Mars. And now it’s more appealing than ever before.

Science becomes real when it’s described in language that the average person understands. We understand the search for water, the discovery of a river bed, a robotic rover identifying elements, and craters weeping water. Without being there we can visualize what James is describing.

He doesn’t just say, ‘we went to Mars and discovered water and chemicals’, he takes the time – in this instance around 3 minutes – to paint a vivid picture with words, but he also includes images that say so much more. Think about how you can use a combination of sentences and images to give your audience a richer experience.

05:23
As we move out into the solar system, here’s the tiny moon Enceladus. This is not in what we call the traditional habitable zone, this area around the sun. This is much further out. This object should be ice over a silicate core.

But what did we find? Cassini was there since 2006, and after a couple years looked back after it flew by Enceladus and surprised us all. Enceladus is blasting sheets of water out into the solar system and sloshing back down onto the moon. What a fabulous environment. Cassini just a few months ago also flew through the plume, and it measured silicate particles. Where does the silica come from? It must come from the ocean floor. The tidal energy is generated by Saturn, pulling and squeezing this moon — is melting that ice, creating an ocean. But it’s also doing that to the core.

Now, the only thing that we can think of that does that here on Earth as an analogy … are hydrothermal vents. Hydrothermal vents deep in our ocean were discovered in 1977. Oceanographers were completely surprised. And now there are thousands of these below the ocean.

What do we find? The oceanographers, when they go and look at these hydrothermal vents, they’re teeming with life, regardless of whether the water is acidic or alkaline — doesn’t matter. So hydrothermal vents are a fabulous abode for life here on Earth. So what about Enceladus? Well, we believe because it has water and has had it for a significant period of time, and we believe it has hydrothermal vents, with perhaps the right organic material, it is a place where life could exist. And not just microbial — maybe more complex because it’s had time to evolve.

In this story about the moon Enceladus, James uses an analogy to compare something we’re unsure of, to something here on Earth that we do have knowledge of. This is a big ‘what if’ as the answer to what’s happening on Enceladus isn’t known so he uses the phrase ‘we believe’. When you’re presenting scientific information, it’s important to differentiate between what is ‘believed’ versus ‘what has been proven’. The phrase ‘it now seems’ is rather different from saying ‘we now know’.

Another moon, very similar, is Europa. Galileo visited Jupiter’s system in 1996 and made fabulous observations of Europa. Europa, we also know, has an under-the-ice crust ocean. Galileo mission told us that, but we never saw any plumes. But we didn’t look for them. Hubble, just a couple years ago, observing Europa, saw plumes of water spraying from the cracks in the southern hemisphere, just exactly like Enceladus.

These moons, which are not in what we call a traditional habitable zone, that are out in the solar system, have liquid water. And if there are organics there, there may be life. This is a fabulous set of discoveries because these moons have been in this environment like that for billions of years. Life started here on Earth, we believe, after about the first 500 million, and look where we are. These moons are fabulous moons.

Another moon that we’re looking at is Titan. Titan is a huge moon of Saturn. It perhaps is much larger than the planet Mercury. It has an extensive atmosphere. It’s so extensive — and it’s mostly nitrogen with a little methane and ethane — that you have to peer through it with radar. And on the surface, Cassini has found liquid. We see lakes … actually almost the size of our Black Sea in some places. And this area is not liquid water; it’s methane. If there’s any place in the solar system where life is not like us, where the substitute of water is another solvent — and it could be methane — it could be Titan.

Early on James states that one of the requirements for life is a liquid solvent, which I assumed would be water. But in describing Titan he speaks about another solvent – methane – that could also work. That had me wondering how life could exist in a liquid solvent other than water. I would have appreciated the addition of one minute to this talk for an explanation.

But my desire serves to highlight the potential problem of a story’s length. If James was only given ten minutes for this talk, that extra minute wasn’t in the cards, unless the story was cut elsewhere, and I couldn’t find any aspect of this story that could be cut and not lose meaning. You may very well come up against a similar constraint and have to chose what to include or cut. Stories don’t go on forever.

Well, is there life beyond Earth in the solar system? We don’t know yet, but we’re hot on the pursuit. The data that we’re receiving is really exciting and telling us — forcing us to think about this in new and exciting ways. I believe we’re on the right track. That in the next 10 years, we will answer that question. And if we answer it, and it’s positive, then life is everywhere in the solar system. Just think about that. We may not be alone.

James concludes where he started by admitting that we don’t know if life exists beyond the boundaries of earth, but he offers his personal view that we’ll have an answer in the next decade. And his final words, ‘We may not be alone.’ are a perfect mirror to the words that he opened with, ‘Is there life beyond Earth in our solar system?’

Thank you.

[Note: all comments inserted into this transcript are my opinions, not those of the speaker, the TED organization, nor anyone else on the planet. In my view, each story is unique, as is every interpretation of that story. The sole purpose of these analytical posts is to inspire a storyteller to become a storylistener, and in doing so, make their stories more impactful.]

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Sal Khan: Let’s teach for mastery, not test scores @ TED Talks Live

TED Talks Live were held at The Town Hall Theater in NYC, in November of 2015. I had the pleasure of attending all six nights to hear speakers present impactful Ideas Worth Spreading. This post is an analysis of a talk by Sal Khan about how mastery and mindset can improve learning.

It’s a classic problem/solution story. One that describes a process that is being used on a global scale – in this case the process of learning – but often delivers less than ideal results. In such situations the stakes are high and new ways of thinking are required in order to address rapid changes in society.

Watch Sal’s TED Talk. He demonstrates that the status quo is not serving most students as it should, and offers an alternative that is based on his experience running the Khan Academy. In his view, it’s imperative that we change the way we learn. And if we do, the benefits to society are significant.

Transcript

(my notes in red)

I’m here today to talk about the two ideas that, at least based on my observations at Khan Academy, are kind of the core, or the key leverage points for learning. And it’s the idea of mastery and the idea of mindset.

When a speaker is well known, as is the case with Sal Khan who founded Khan Academy, a phrase such as ‘my observations at Khan Academy’ speaks volumes. He doesn’t need to explain his role or the history of the academy, but if you don’t have such notoriety, adding another sentence of explanation will keep the audience from being confused about who you are and the work you’re doing. In fact, at no point in his talk does Sal speak about his credentials. Few of us would be so fortunate.

I saw this in the early days working with my cousins. A lot of them were having trouble with math at first, because they had all of these gaps accumulated in their learning. And because of that, at some point they got to an algebra class and they might have been a little bit shaky on some of the pre-algebra, and because of that, they thought they didn’t have the math gene. Or they’d get to a calculus class, and they’d be a little bit shaky on the algebra. I saw it in the early days when I was uploading some of those videos on YouTube, and I realized that people who were not my cousins were watching.

Having introduced ‘the idea of mastery and the idea of mindset’, Sal provides an example that is also personal – ‘my cousins’ and by mentioning that it happened ‘in the early days’, he takes us back in time to the beginning of his journey. When you’re taking an audience on a journey of discovery, of developing a new view of the world, people want to know where it all started. What’s your origin story?

And at first, those comments were just simple thank yous. I thought that was a pretty big deal. I don’t know how much time you all spend on YouTube. Most of the comments are not “Thank you.” They’re a little edgier than that.

But then the comments got a little more intense, student after student saying that they had grown up not liking math. It was getting difficult as they got into more advanced math topics. By the time they got to algebra, they had so many gaps in their knowledge they couldn’t engage with it. They thought they didn’t have the math gene. But when they were a bit older, they took a little agency and decided to engage. They found resources like Khan Academy and they were able to fill in those gaps and master those concepts, and that reinforced their mindset that it wasn’t fixed; that they actually were capable of learning mathematics.

He then shifts the narrative from his cousins to the general public who have been watching his math videos on YouTube. In doing so Sal offers evidence that people who struggled with math could master the concepts that had been troublesome. In your idea-driven story, can you offer examples of how your idea is having an impact? That signifies that your idea has been, to some extent, validated.

And in a lot of ways, this is how you would master a lot of things in life. It’s the way you would learn a martial art. In a martial art, you would practice the white belt skills as long as necessary, and only when you’ve mastered it you would move on to become a yellow belt. It’s the way you learn a musical instrument: you practice the basic piece over and over again, and only when you’ve mastered it, you go on to the more advanced one.

Sal uses the examples of martial arts and music to support the idea of mastery that he began with. In this way we understand that the principle at hand is not confined to his one subject, but instead is common in many aspects of life. Most social problems have parallels elsewhere in society.

But what we point out — this is not the way a traditional academic model is structured, the type of academic model that most of us grew up in. In a traditional academic model, we group students together, usually by age, and around middle school, by age and perceived ability, and we shepherd them all together at the same pace. And what typically happens, let’s say we’re in a middle school pre-algebra class, and the current unit is on exponents, the teacher will give a lecture on exponents, then we’ll go home, do some homework. The next morning, we’ll review the homework, then another lecture, homework, lecture, homework. That will continue for about two or three weeks, and then we get a test. On that test, maybe I get a 75 percent, maybe you get a 90 percent, maybe you get a 95 percent. And even though the test identified gaps in our knowledge, I didn’t know 25 percent of the material. Even the A student, what was the five percent they didn’t know?

Even though we’ve identified the gaps, the whole class will then move on to the next subject, probably a more advanced subject that’s going to build on those gaps. It might be logarithms or negative exponents. And that process continues, and you immediately start to realize how strange this is. I didn’t know 25 percent of the more foundational thing, and now I’m being pushed to the more advanced thing. And this will continue for months, years, all the way until at some point, I might be in an algebra class or trigonometry class and I hit a wall. And it’s not because algebra is fundamentally difficult or because the student isn’t bright. It’s because I’m seeing an equation and they’re dealing with exponents and that 30 percent that I didn’t know is showing up. And then I start to disengage.

In this story block, Sal describes how a traditional education system works and identifies a fundamental flaw in the learning process – the fact that students are expected to learn new concepts using a foundation that contains knowledge gaps. This description not only resonates with the highly educated audience at the event, but will also be familiar with students around the world. In doing so, he builds a connection to the local, as well as the remote, audience.

To appreciate how absurd that is, imagine if we did other things in our life that way. Say, home-building. So we bring in the contractor and say, “We were told we have two weeks to build a foundation. Do what you can.” So they do what they can. Maybe it rains. Maybe some of the supplies don’t show up. And two weeks later, the inspector comes, looks around, says, “OK, the concrete is still wet right over there, that part’s not quite up to code … I’ll give it an 80 percent.” You say, “Great! That’s a C. Let’s build the first floor.”

Same thing. We have two weeks, do what you can, inspector shows up, it’s a 75 percent. Great, that’s a D-plus. Second floor, third floor, and all of a sudden, while you’re building the third floor, the whole structure collapses. And if your reaction is the reaction you typically have in education, or that a lot of folks have, you might say, maybe we had a bad contractor, or maybe we needed better inspection or more frequent inspection. But what was really broken was the process. We were artificially constraining how long we had to something, pretty much ensuring a variable outcome, and we took the trouble of inspecting and identifying those gaps, but then we built right on top of it.

As he did previously, Sal uses an analogy – this time building a house – to illustrate the result of creating a flawed foundation. Analogies can be an impactful part of your narrative, as they provide your audience with another way of seeing the problem that you’re addressing. When Sal says ‘Let’s build the first floor.’ what goes through your mind is, ‘This is not going to end well.’ Which is the point he’s making about the education system. You would never consider building a house with a flawed foundation.

So the idea of mastery learning is to do the exact opposite. Instead of artificially constraining, fixing when and how long you work on something, pretty much ensuring that variable outcome, the A, B, C, D, F — do it the other way around. What’s variable is when and how long a student actually has to work on something, and what’s fixed is that they actually master the material.

Every story that is concerned with a problem, must naturally shift to the solution, which in this story is ‘… to do the exact opposite.’ The change is from focusing on the time constraint to focusing on ‘mastery learning’. Where this pivot occurs is different in every story. In this talk, it’s about the half way point, which is pretty common. What’s important is that the pivot is clear the audience.

And it’s important to realize that not only will this make the student learn their exponents better, but it’ll reinforce the right mindset muscles. It makes them realize that if you got 20 percent wrong on something, it doesn’t mean that you have a C branded in your DNA somehow. It means that you should just keep working on it. You should have grit; you should have perseverance; you should take agency over your learning.

As he continues with the benefits of his approach to learning, Sal touches upon the second idea that he mentioned at the beginning of his talk – mindset. Rather than feeling that a low score is the final word, he encourages students to take control of their situation, to have grit, perseverance and agency. Solutions to problems that require individual action should include the inspiration to take those actions.

Now, a lot of skeptics might say, well, hey, this is all great, philosophically, this whole idea of mastery-based learning and its connection to mindset, students taking agency over their learning. It makes a lot of sense, but it seems impractical. To actually do it, every student would be on their own track. It would have to be personalized, you’d have to have private tutors and worksheets for every student. And these aren’t new ideas — there were experiments in Winnetka, Illinois, 100 years ago, where they did mastery-based learning and saw great results, but they said it wouldn’t scale because it was logistically difficult. The teacher had to give different worksheets to every student, give on-demand assessments.

If there are audience members who doubt the veracity of your idea, including an opposite viewpoint story block allows the speaker to address concerns that might be present. In this case he includes the example of a previous experiment, the challenges they encountered, then follows on with his view that such issues are no longer a problem today. The general approach is ‘you may see the situation this way, but I have a different view that I want to share with you’.

But now today, it’s no longer impractical. We have the tools to do it. Students see an explanation at their own time and pace? There’s on-demand video for that. They need practice? They need feedback? There’s adaptive exercises readily available for students.

In a longer talk there would be time to provide examples of how ‘on-demand video’ and ‘adaptive exercises’ would work for students. I was left with a concept, but not much in the way of understanding. Hearing one story about an individual would have made the idea much more impactful.

And when that happens, all sorts of neat things happen. One, the students can actually master the concepts, but they’re also building their growth mindset, they’re building grit, perseverance, they’re taking agency over their learning. And all sorts of beautiful things can start to happen in the actual classroom. Instead of it being focused on the lecture, students can interact with each other. They can get deeper mastery over the material. They can go into simulations, Socratic dialogue.

Sal reiterates some of the key point previously mentioned in his talk – mastering the concepts, building a growth mindset, building grit and perseverance and taking agency. This is a way to remind the audience of those factors which are important to your solution. Once again, however, I wanted to hear a story. An example of how a more dynamic classroom would operate. Take me inside the room. Let me feel the experience.

To appreciate what we’re talking about and the tragedy of lost potential here, I’d like to give a little bit of a thought experiment. If we were to go 400 years into the past to Western Europe, which even then, was one of the more literate parts of the planet, you would see that about 15 percent of the population knew how to read. And I suspect that if you asked someone who did know how to read, say a member of the clergy, “What percentage of the population do you think is even capable of reading?” They might say, “Well, with a great education system, maybe 20 or 30 percent.”

But if you fast forward to today, we know that that prediction would have been wildly pessimistic, that pretty close to 100 percent of the population is capable of reading. But if I were to ask you a similar question: “What percentage of the population do you think is capable of truly mastering calculus, or understanding organic chemistry, or being able to contribute to cancer research?” A lot of you might say, “Well, with a great education system, maybe 20, 30 percent.”

But what if that estimate is just based on your own experience in a non-mastery framework, your own experience with yourself or observing your peers, where you’re being pushed at this set pace through classes, accumulating all these gaps? Even when you got the A, that 95 percent, what was that five percent you missed? And it keeps accumulating — you get to an advanced class, all of a sudden you hit a wall and say, “I’m not meant to be a cancer researcher; I’m not meant to be a physicist; I’m not meant to be a mathematician.”

And I suspect that that actually is the case, but if you were allowed to be operating in a mastery framework, if you were allowed to really take agency over your learning, and when you get something wrong, embrace it — view that failure as a moment of learning — that number, the percent that could really master calculus or understand organic chemistry, is actually a lot closer to 100 percent.

The use of a ‘what if’ type of hypothetical question allows the audience to envision what could be better if the process was improved. In a problem/solution, idea-driven storyline, that’s a way of asking, ‘What if my solution were implemented? What would the result be?’ There are no guarantees that a proposed solution will work, but if you explain it clearly and give examples, the audience can imagine what the future might look like.

And this isn’t even just a “nice to have.” I think it’s a social imperative. We’re exiting what you could call the industrial age and we’re going into this, whatever, information revolution. And it’s clear that some things are happening. In the industrial age, society was a pyramid. And at the base of the pyramid, you needed human labor. In the middle of the pyramid, you had an information processing, a bureaucracy class, and at the top of the pyramid, you had your owners of capital and your entrepreneurs and your creative class. But we know what’s happening already, as we go into this information revolution. The bottom of that pyramid, automation, is going to take over. Even that middle tier, information processing, that’s what computers are good at.

Sal brings up an important point, that society is changing rapidly due to a revolution in information processing, which in his mind, means that it’s imperative to adopt a new way of learning. This is common for social issues that are not static. Which is to say, your solution is not just about solving a current problem, but is also needed going forward to prevent even greater harm. Think about how the future will look without your ideas being implemented. Is there a similar imperative within your story that the audience needs to understand?

So as a society, we have a question: All this new productivity is happening because of this technology, but who participates in it? Is it just going to be that very top of the pyramid, in which case, what does everyone else do? How do they operate? Or do we do something that’s more aspirational? Do we actually attempt to invert the pyramid, where you have a large creative class, where almost everyone can participate as an entrepreneur, an artist, as a researcher?

And I don’t think that this is utopian. I really think that this is all based on the idea that if we let people tap into their potential by mastering concepts, by being able to exercise agency over their learning, that they can get there. And when you think of it as just a citizen of the world, it’s pretty exciting. I mean, think about the type of equity we can we have, and the rate at which civilization could even progress. And so, I’m pretty optimistic about it. I think it’s going to be a pretty exciting time to be alive.

Thank you.

The visual of ‘inverting the pyramid’ is powerful, it’s a classic, ‘turn the problem on its head’ sort of narrative, but I’m not sure it works here. It may make sense to you, but it had me scratching my head. I was thinking that Sal’s approach to learning, whereby students learn at their own pace, master each level before moving on, and take control of their future, feels more like ‘leveling the playing field’.

But that’s a relatively small complaint, as the crux of his talk is about how our education system is fundamentally flawed, but doesn’t need to be. That we can change how the system operates, and in doing so, give students the opportunity to thrive instead of struggle.

[Note: all comments inserted into this transcript are my opinions, not those of the speaker, the TED organization, nor anyone else on the planet. In my view, each story is unique, as is every interpretation of that story. The sole purpose of these analytical posts is to inspire a storyteller to become a storylistener, and in doing so, make their stories more impactful.]

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The Story of Your Identity in the Digital Age

The concept of identity has always been difficult to define, and while the digital age has, to some extent, simplified the issue with its ability to capture, store, and transmit our personal information, it has also introduced an additional level of complexity by forcing us into neat digital boxes, including the box that says, “prefer not to answer.” 

I recently watched Zara Rahman‘s presentation on stage at The Conference in August 2019. Titled The Unintended Impact of Technology, Zara raises several concerns about how technology is being used to define who we are, which I feel is very important, as who we are (or think ourselves to be) shapes the content and style of the personal stories that we share.

Zara is a researcher, writer, speaker, linguist, and the Deputy Director at The Engine Room, an international non-profit organisation supporting civil society to use tech and data more effectively and strategically.

Instead of diving right into the latest technologies or the politics of identity, Zara begins with a personal story that reveals the complex nature of defining her identity, with family roots from Bangladesh, yet being raised in the UK and holding a British passport – culture vs documents – not an uncommon situation considering modern migration patterns.

“The ability to self-identify is what makes us human. The fluidity of changing identities is a core part of how we grow and change as human beings, no matter what our passports may say.”

She explains how the issue is much larger than just a passport by introducing the concept of “identification technologies” that include any type registration system, as well as the use of national identity cards. The notion of our identity being fluid is not new, as humans have been migrating for over 50,000 years, but most of that time was undocumented and no one was tracking where we came from or where we might go. But that’s all changed.

From a travel standpoint, the requirement of identification has been on the rise for decades, and after 9-11 that increase has been most pronounced when traveling by air. On my last international journey various authorities checked my passport five times. I feel fortunate that my ability to travel is largely unrestricted, but other people are not so lucky with travel bans in place based on religion or ethnicity.

Referring to the establishment of nation states, and the subsequent use of the passports, Zara talks about the positive aspects of establishing shared citizenship, and a shared identity. You can see yourself as having a common bond. But once you’re labeled, governments and corporations can use this data to make decisions based on where we were born, within the borders of lines drawn on a map. How many of you chose the country you were born in? Yet you will always carry that with you, even if you become a citizen of another country.

“…a passport is not a document that tells us who we are, but a document that shows what other people think of us.” – Orhan Pamuk

And in some cases, this rigid view of your ethnicity can be fatal, as Zara recounts the events surrounding the Rwandan genocide in 1994, a tragedy amplified by the use of identity cards which accelerated the slaughtering of Tutsis. The Rohingya people are being persecuted by the government of Myanmar (more commonly described as ethnic cleansing) to the point where tens of thousands have been forced to leave the country and are now stateless, with no national identity.

On another front, the field of genomics holds great promise in its ability to peer inside human history and evolution as a way to uncover the nature of diseases, and in doing so, potentially provide cures and treatments for those diseases. But there’s also a troubling downside to the collection of genetic information when it is used to ‘define’ ethnicity, or quantify the ethnic diversity of our genome. I wonder how this will evolve – might this become another way to place people into categories based on their DNA, and could that lead to more discrimination?

As we’re all aware (or should be) once data is captured, it’s there forever. And if that data is shared, which is the norm for non-governmental databases, then it becomes permanent in multiple places. And should that data be in error and need correcting, or should you want to withdraw from a database altogether, there’s no guarantee it’s possible to do so.

How do you identify yourself when telling your story, and how does the world see you after hearing your story? Is your identity a benefit, or is there a downside that you must deal with?

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